Published: 11:35 EDT, 1 November 2017 | Updated: 11:35 EDT, 1 November 2017
By Andy Bruce and Saikat Chatterjee
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) – The Bank of England has a problem.
It is poised to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade on Thursday, with the hike expected to be from 0.25 to 0.5 percent. But many investors in British assets and economists are sceptical this will mark the start of a cycle of "limited and gradual" rises, as the BoE has been signalling since 2014.
They are instead betting the uncertainties surrounding Britain's exit from the European Union and fundamental weaknesses in the British economy will hinder any plan to pursue a cycle of rate rises, no matter how gradual.
Marc Ostwald, market strategist at ADM Investor Services, said the market expectations for rate rises was best summed up as "one and done". He added the bank and its Governor Mark Carney had put themselves under undue pressure with their own recent guidance on rates.
"The BoE has painted itself into a corner," he said.
Carney thinks leaving the EU will reduce the speed limit on how fast the economy can grow without pushing up inflation, which has hit a five-year high of 3 percent, above the BoE's 2 percent target.
In other words, higher rates will be needed even if growth is weak, although they are unlikely to return to pre-financial crisis rates of around 5 percent for the foreseeable future.
While many investors accept his logic in principle, they say it is impossible to look beyond the hard data available now which shows a lacklustre economy and the likelihood of more turbulence from Brexit negotiations.
"We think the UK economy is in a structurally weak place … and as such further rate hikes after this week look very difficult," said Nick D'Onofrio, managing partner at North Asset Management, a hedge fund in London with around $500 million under management.
He cited Britain's current account deficit – the largest among major advanced economies last year – as a vulnerability.
"We would look to sell sterling into any post BoE-rate hike bounce," D'Onofrio said.
Financial market expectations for interest rates, measured by overnight index swaps, assign an almost 90 percent chance of a 25 basis-point hike on Thursday.
But after that, the chance of a further 25 basis-point increase stood on Tuesday between 30 and 38 percent for 2018, Ostwald said.
He thinks Carney has left himself a tough task to explain the BoE's future intentions for rates.
If the BoE does hike this week, the governor faces a precarious balancing act: he will want to reassure the public that borrowing costs are not set to rise sharply, without encouraging complacency in markets that rates will stay super-low.
Investors were surprised in September by a marked escalation in tone from the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), most of whose members felt a hike would probably be needed "over the coming months" if the economy and price pressures continued to grow.
Markets had not been expecting a rate rise before 2019 but shifted fast to focus on November. A change in tone from the BoE on Thursday could cause further shifts.
Almost all economists polled by Reuters last week expect the BoE to raise rates on Thursday. But most do not expect another one next year: the poll's consensus shows the rate is likely to be stuck at 0.5 percent until mid-2019. Seventy percent said even one rate rise now would be a mistake.
The latter view is common in markets, too.
Carney may struggle to get his message about future rate hikes through to investors who are worried about the progress of Brexit talks above all else.
"We are about to see the largest economic adjustment the country has seen in decades and the BoE is tightening policy into that," said Russell Silbertson, head of Multi-Asset Absolute Return at Investec Asset Management in London.
He has trimmed his sterling positions after the pound's recent rally.
"Given that households are leveraged up and the economy is weak, we remain sceptical about (the BoE's) optimism," he said.
The BoE has long been criticised for its efforts to steer market expectations for interest rates, a policy called forward guidance introduced in 2013.
Under Carney the BoE has made a habit of signalling higher rates and then being unable to deliver them.
"It does look as if people have not received the Bank's attempts (at forward guidance)," said former BoE deputy governor Rachel Lomax, speaking at a monetary policy discussion organised by economic research firm Fathom Consulting on Tuesday.
Lomax, an MPC member for five years until 2008, recalled debates about the merits of forward guidance.
"People who were against it always said no-one will ever understand that it's conditional, we will just look like fools and so on," Lomax said. "Maybe the naysayers were right. But I give Mark basically credit for trying."
Other economists are less forgiving.
Erik Britton, Fathom Consulting's managing director, said Carney faced a no-win scenario on Thursday.
"I think there's a high likelihood that they're going to trip over their own forward guidance," he said.
"Either way, he's going to look a bit silly. Because even if they (hike rates), people will judge it unnecessary. Or if they don't do it, people will say 'what on earth was that forward guidance about?'"
(Writing by Andy Bruce; Graphic by Michael Ovaska; Editing by William Schomberg and Pravin Char)
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Australia: Scott Morrison saga casts scrutiny on Queen’s representative
In the past fortnight, Australia has been gripped by revelations that former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison secretly appointed himself to several additional ministries.
The move has been labelled a “power grab” by his successor as prime minister, and Mr Morrison has been scolded by many – even his own colleagues.
But the scandal has also dragged Australia’s governor-general into the fray – sparking one of the biggest controversies involving the Queen’s representative in Australia in 50 years.
So does Governor-General David Hurley have questions to answer, or is he just collateral damage?
Governors-general have fulfilled the practical duties as Australia’s head of state since the country’s 1901 federation.
Candidates for the role were initially chosen by the monarch but are now recommended by the Australian government.
The job is largely ceremonial – a governor-general in almost every circumstance must act on the advice of the government of the day. But conventions allow them the right to “encourage” and “warn” politicians.
Key duties include signing bills into law, issuing writs for elections, and swearing in ministers.
Mr Hurley has run into trouble on the latter. At Mr Morrison’s request, he swore the prime minister in as joint minister for health in March 2020, in case the existing minister became incapacitated by Covid.
Over the next 14 months, he also signed off Mr Morrison as an additional minister in the finance, treasury, home affairs and resources portfolios.
Mr Morrison already had ministerial powers, so Mr Hurley was basically just giving him authority over extra departments.
It’s a request the governor-general “would not have any kind of power to override or reject”, constitutional law professor Anne Twomey tells the BBC.
“This wasn’t even a meeting between the prime minister and the governor-general, it was just paperwork.”
But Mr Morrison’s appointments were not publicly announced, disclosed to the parliament, or even communicated to most of the ministers he was job-sharing with.
Australia’s solicitor-general found Mr Morrison’s actions were not illegal but had “fundamentally undermined” responsible government.
But the governor-general had done the right thing, the solicitor-general said in his advice this week.
It would have been “a clear breach” for him to refuse the prime minister, regardless of whether he knew the appointments would be kept secret, Stephen Donaghue said.
Critics push for investigation
Ultimately, Mr Hurley had to sign off on Mr Morrison’s requests, but critics say he could have counselled him against it and he could have publicised it himself.
But representatives for the governor-general say these types of appointments – giving ministers the right to administer other departments – are not unusual.
And it falls to the government of the day to decide if they should be announced to the public. They often opt not to.
Mr Hurley himself announcing the appointments would be unprecedented. He had “no reason to believe that appointments would not be communicated”, his spokesperson said.
Emeritus professor Jenny Hocking finds the suggestion Mr Hurley didn’t know the ministries had been kept secret “ridiculous”.
“The last of these bizarre, duplicated ministry appointments… were made more than a year after the first, so clearly by then the governor-general did know that they weren’t being made public,” she says.
“I don’t agree for a moment that the governor-general has a lot of things on his plate and might not have noticed.”
The historian says it’s one of the biggest controversies surrounding a governor-general since John Kerr caused a constitutional crisis by sacking Prime Minister Gough Whitlam in 1975.
Prof Hocking famously fought for transparency around that matter – waging a lengthy and costly legal battle that culminated in the release of Mr Kerr’s correspondence with the Queen.
And she says the same transparency is needed here.
The Australian public need to know whether Mr Hurley counselled the prime minister against the moves, and why he didn’t disclose them
The government has already announced an inquiry into Mr Morrison’s actions, but she wants it to look at the governor-general and his office too.
“If the inquiry is to find out what happened in order to fix what happened, it would be extremely problematic to leave out a key part of that equation.”
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull – Mr Morrison’s predecessor – has also voiced support for an inquiry.
“Something has gone seriously wrong at Government House,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
“It is the passive compliance along the chain… that did undermine our constitution and our democracy… that troubles me the most. This is how tyranny gets under way.”
PM defends governor-general
Prof Twomey says the criticism of Mr Hurley is unfair – there’s was no “conspiracy” on his part to keep things secret.
“I don’t think it’s reasonable for anyone to expect that he could have guessed that the prime minister was keeping things secret from his own ministers, for example.
“Nobody really thought that was a possibility until about two weeks ago.”
Even if he had taken the unprecedented step to publicise the appointments or to reject Mr Morrison’s request, he’d have been criticised, she says.
“There’d be even more people saying ‘how outrageous!'” she says. “The role of governor-general is awkward because people are going to attack you either way.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also defended Mr Hurley, saying he was just doing his job.
“I have no intention of undertaking any criticism of [him].”
A role fit for purpose?
Prof Hocking says it’s a timely moment to look at the role of the governor-general more broadly.
She points out it’s possible the Queen may have been informed about Mr Morrison’s extra ministries when Australia’s parliament and people were not.
“It does raise questions about whether this is fit for purpose, as we have for decades been a fully independent nation, but we still have… ‘the relics of colonialism’ alive and well.”
Momentum for a fresh referendum on an Australian republic has been growing and advocates have seized on the controversy.
“The idea that the Queen and her representative can be relied upon to uphold our system of government has been debunked once and for all,” the Australian Republic Movement’s Sandy Biar says.
“It’s time we had an Australian head of state, chosen by Australians and accountable to them to safeguard and uphold Australia’s constitution.”
But Prof Twomey says republicans are “clutching at straws” – under their proposals, the head of state would also have been bound to follow the prime minister’s advice.
“It wouldn’t result in any changes that would have made one iota of difference.”
Australia election: PM Morrison’s security team in car crash in Tasmania
A car carrying the Australian prime minister’s security team has crashed in Tasmania during an election campaign visit.
Four police officers were taken to hospital with “non-life threatening injuries” after the car and another vehicle collided, authorities said.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison was not in the car, but the accident prompted him to cancel the rest of his campaign events on Thursday.
The other driver involved was not hurt.
Tasmania Police said initial investigations suggested the second car had “collided with the rear of the police vehicle, while attempting to merge”. It caused the unmarked security vehicle to roll off the road.
The two Tasmania Police officers and two Australian Federal Police officers were conscious when taken to hospital for medical assessment, the prime minister’s office said.
“Family members of the officers have been contacted and are being kept informed of their condition,” a statement said.
“The PM is always extremely grateful for the protection provided by his security team and extends his best wishes for their recovery and to their families.”
Australians go to the polls on 21 May. Mr Morrison – prime minister since 2018 – is hoping to win his conservative coalition’s fourth term in office.
Polls suggest the opposition Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, is favoured to win. However, Mr Morrison defied similar polling to claim victory at the last election in 2019.
Mr Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition holds 76 seats in the House of Representatives – the minimum needed to retain power.
Political observers say the cost of living, climate change, trust in political leaders, and national security will be among key issues in the campaign.
In recent weeks, the prime minister has faced accusations of being a bully and once sabotaging a rival’s career by suggesting the man’s Lebanese heritage made him less electable. Mr Morrison has denied the allegations.
Mr Albanese stumbled into his own controversy this week when he failed to recall the nation’s unemployment or interest rates.
Sydney airport warns delays could last weeks on third day of travel chaos
Long queues at Sydney airport’s domestic terminals have continued for a third day, with some passengers missing international connections, as the airport warns delays resulting from a surge in travellers and a shortfall in security staff could continue for weeks.
Chaotic scenes were reported in the departure halls as early as 4.30am on Saturday, with some frustrated travellers, many of whom heeded the pleas of airport chiefs to arrive at least two hours before their domestic flight was due to take off, claiming only one security line was operating.
While the queues that formed early on Saturday are understood to have cleared later in the morning, the airport apologised to affected travellers.
“Traffic numbers are picking up and the close contact rules are making it hard to fill shifts and staff the airport. We appreciate your patience,” Sydney airport said on its Twitter account.
A wave of families travelling as the term two school holidays begin this weekend, combined with close contact rules that are understood to be taking out about 20% of security shifts in any given day, are driving the problem.
Certis, the company that Sydney airport contracts for its security operations, is desperately trying to recruit personnel, while the airport has reallocated back office, IT and retail workers to the departure hall to comb queues so they can prioritise passengers at risk of missing their flight.
“We are working around the clock to resolve these issues and have teams in the terminals bringing passengers forward in order of priority,” a Sydney airport spokesperson said.
He added that the airport is “anticipating it will [be] busy right through the school holiday period and peak over the Easter and Anzac Day weekends, in some cases at 90% of pre-Covid passenger levels”.
“We’re deeply grateful to passengers for their ongoing patience and we’re sorry to everyone who has been inconvenienced,” the spokesperson said. “We would also like to thank passengers for getting to the airport early and treating staff and each other with kindness and respect.”
The Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce was forced to clarify comments he made on Friday that passengers were “not match fit” and that those forgetting to remove laptops and aerosols from their bags at the security check contributing to the delays.
“Just to be clear, I’m not ‘blaming’ passengers,” Joyce said. “Of course it’s not their fault,” he said.
Qantas shed thousands of staff during the pandemic, and outsourced ground crews in a decision that was challenged in court.
On Saturday, Qantas also apologised to a Melbourne family left stranded in Sydney, after domestic flight delays caused them to miss an international trip.
Javiera Martinez, her partner Daniel Capurro and their three children were supposed to be flying to Chile on Friday to visit relatives they had not seen in three years.
But after their 8am Qantas flight from Melbourne was delayed by half an hour, baggage handling and airport transfer delays in Sydney meant they couldn’t make their 11.30am LATAM Airlines flight to Santiago.
Martinez said the airline’s procedures at the airport were chaotic.
“We think Qantas didn’t behave appropriately. I got berated by the person at the counter – they never apologised, they never assumed any responsibility at all,” she said. “It was a rude conversation. We have been mistreated badly I would say.”
The PCR tests they need to travel have now expired and they will have to take them again as they wait for seats on the next flight to Santiago from Sunday.
The airline has apologised and paid for a night’s accommodation in Sydney.
“We sincerely apologise that the family missed their connecting flight on another airline due to delays moving through Sydney airport on Friday,” a Qantas spokesperson said.
The family is among many affected by hold ups amid the busiest travel period in two years, with Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane airports warning passengers to arrive two hours before domestic flights.
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