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Business is beginning to panic about Brexit

The headaches of negotiating Brexit
Grounded flights. Massive delays at border crossings. A shortag..



The headaches of negotiating Brexit

Grounded flights. Massive delays at border crossings. A shortage of parts for nuclear power plants. 75,000 lost finance jobs.

These are a handful of the dramatic economic consequences if Britain crashes out of the European Union in 2019 without agreeing a new relationship with the bloc. Negotiations have hit a roadblock but are due to resume next week.

The British government has assessed the damage that a "no deal" Brexit would have on 58 industries. Opposition lawmakers are heaping pressure on the government to publish the findings, but it has so far refused.

Here's a look at what experts say could happen in the days and weeks following a "no deal" Brexit:


No deal would mean that key trade, regulatory and legal agreements that underpin Britain's economy will be invalidated on March 29, 2019.

One immediate consequence: Thousands of flights in and out of Britain could be grounded.

That's because the U.K. is signatory to international aviation agreements via the EU that allow flights to operate in and out of the country.

Thomas van der Wijngaart, an airline specialist at law firm Clyde & Co., said that flights to all 27 EU members would be affected, along with 17 other countries including the U.S., Canada and Israel.

Aviation experts say that London and Brussels are under immense pressure to reach a deal.

"It is so unthinkably disruptive that some arrangement has to be put in place, but what arrangement we don't really know," said Jonathan Wober, chief financial analyst at CAPA – Centre for Aviation.

Airlines are taking precautionary measures.British budget carrier EasyJet(ESYJY) recently set up a separate business unit in Austria to make sure it can keep flying within the EU if there's no deal on Brexit.


For decades, trucks and ships carrying EU goods have entered and exited Britain with scarcely a second look from customs officers. But not anymore.

"No deal" means that Britain would lose free trade with Europe, and all trade deals and treaties that the EU has negotiated with other nations.

Instead, Britain would be forced to operate under World Trade Organization rules.

That would mean higher prices. Tariffs on dairy products from the EU would rise by 45%, while those on meat products would spike 37%, according to the U.K. Trade Policy Observatory and the Resolution Foundation.

Imports from outside the EU, such as Cuban cigars and South African wine, would also be affected.

Related: The CNNMoney Brexit jobs tracker

A messy exit would result in chaos at border crossings, where new customs infrastructure would need to be installed.

Dover, the country's main port for trade, has warned that just two minutes of extra processing time per truck "would cause [lines] of over 17 miles."

If fresh foods were stuck at the border — say tomatoes from Spain — they could rot before they reach grocery shelves. The U.K. currently gets about 30% of its food from the EU.

"One of the main challenges beyond the paperwork is the logistics," said Philippe Binard, general delegate of European fresh food association Freshfel. "Maybe there will be a practical solution over time, or maybe not."

The pain would extend beyond physical goods: Consulting firm Oliver Wyman says that 75,000 finance jobs could be lost over the long term if there's no deal on Brexit.


Brits should prepare to pay more for energy too if a deal is not reached.

Electric power imported from the EU would be more expensive if it's no longer covered by free trade deals.

"No deal" also promises to make life difficult for the nuclear power industry, which supplies roughly 20% of the country's electricity.

If the U.K. loses access to the EU's nuclear safeguard system, operators would have trouble importing parts for their aging reactors. If plants are forced to shut down, the stability of the U.K. power grid could be at risk.

The country would need to quickly negotiate new nuclear agreements and establish domestic oversight to comply with international nuclear rules.

"Our concern is that there is a lot to do in a short period of time," said Tom Greatrex, head of the British Nuclear Industry Association. "It's hard to see there will be anything other than significant disruption."

Immigration and rights

Roughly 3 million people from other EU states live in the U.K. Meanwhile, 1 million Brits live in other EU nations. Under EU law, both groups currently enjoy the same rights when it comes to jobs, pensions and health insurance.

Related: Why Britain needs the immigrants it doesn't want

But a messy Brexit could instantly render both groups illegal residents.

If negotiations collapse, it would be up to each individual country to determine the rights of these expats.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King's College London, said it's unlikely that Britain or EU countries would start deporting people in the absence of a deal.

But given the uncertainty surrounding their status, it might be more difficult for them to get a job or rent an apartment, he said.

Irish border

"No deal" could mean drastic changes to the land border between Ireland (in the EU) and Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.).

The border is currently "invisible," with up to 30,000 people and 13,000 commercial vehicles freely crossing it each day.

Many companies have a presence on both sides of the border, and products often cross it several times before reaching consumers.

"With no transitional arrangements in place, and no future customs relationship agreed, we will see an immediate re-imposition of customs controls at the Northern Irish border," said Andrew Gilmore, deputy director of research at Ireland's Institute of International and European Affairs.

Gilmore said that customs checks would be "profoundly disruptive for business," and policing the border would be a major challenge.

Ports and airports would require significant extra staffing and storage infrastructure.

The reintroduction of controls would also present a major political headache. The 1998 peace accord that marked the end of 30 years of deadly violence is based on cross-border cooperation and the removal of visible barriers.

— James Frater contributed reporting.

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Ursula von der Leyen offers speedy response to Ukraine’s bid to join EU



European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the civilian deaths in the Ukrainian town of Bucha showed the “cruel face” of Russia’s army and pledged to try to speed Ukraine’s bid to become a member of the European Union.

During a visit to Bucha on Friday, where forensic investigators started to exhume bodies from a mass grave, Von der Leyen looked visibly moved by what she saw in the town northwest of Kyiv where Ukrainian officials say hundreds of civilians were killed by Russian forces.

Russia denies targeting civilians and has called the allegations that Russian forces executed civilians in Bucha while they occupied the town a “monstrous forgery”.

As EU officials were about to arrive in Kyiv, at least 50 people were killed and many more wounded in a missile strike at a railway station packed with civilians fleeing the threat of a major Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.

At a news conference, Von der Leyen condemned what she called “the cynical behaviour” of those who wrote “for our children” on the weapons found near the scene.

Saying the EU could never match the sacrifice of Ukraine, Von der Leyen offered it a speedier start to its bid for bloc membership.

Handing the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a questionnaire which will form a starting point for a decision on membership, she said: “It will not as usual be a matter of years to form this opinion but I think a matter of weeks.”

Zelenskiy told the same news conference he would come back with answers in a week.

“Russia will descend into economic, financial and technological decay, while Ukraine is marching towards the European future, this is what I see,” Von der Leyen said.

Earlier in Bucha, she told reporters: “The unthinkable has happened here. We have seen the cruel face of Putin’s army. We have seen the recklessness and the cold-heartedness with which they have been occupying the city.”

Von der Leyen’s trip to Kyiv was aimed at offering Zelenskiy moral and some financial support.

She pledged her support for Ukraine to “emerge from the war as a democratic country”, something, she said, the European Union and other donors would help with.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said he hoped the EU could allocate a further €500m (£420m) to Ukraine for arms purchases in a couple of days.

Zelenskiy has urged Brussels to do more to punish Russia, including banning purchases of Russian oil and gas, and has called on the EU to accept Ukraine as a full member.

Earlier, Borrell said oil sanctions were “a big elephant in the room“, with some concerns that a move to cut out Russian crude could cause a spike in prices that would be painful to European economies. He said a decision on exports would be raised on Monday in Brussels.


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Dutch officials drop case against Rijksmuseum over ‘racist’ word



The director of the Rijksmuseum said he was “happy” as Dutch prosecutors announced they would not proceed with an investigation into complaints over a newly opened exhibition on Indonesian independence, the first of its kind in Europe.

The exhibition, Revolusi! Indonesia Independent, at the Netherlands’ national museum, has been a source a controversy since one of its curators, Bonnie Triyana, said the term “bersiap”, or stand by, would not be used in reference to the violent upheaval that followed a declaration of independence from the Dutch state.

Triyana claimed that use of the word, a battle cry for young Indonesians seeking independence, “takes on a strongly racist connotation” in the Netherlands today that “always portrays primitive, uncivilised Indonesians as perpetrators of the violence”. He said: “The team of curators has decided not to use the word bersiap as a common term referring to the violent period in Indonesia.”

In a sign of the ongoing sensitivity in Dutch society over the country’s colonial history, the comments drew a furious response in some quarters, with the head of the Federation of Dutch Indonesians, Hans Moll, accusing the Rijksmuseum of genocide denial by ignoring that “thousands of Dutch people were brutally tortured, raped and murdered by Indonesians because of their Dutch or European ethnicity”.

Complaints were made to the general prosecutor last month but Taco Dibbits, the Rijksmuseum’s director, said he had learned on the eve of the exhibition’s opening on Thursday that the justice ministry would not be proceeding with the case.

“I’m happy and had expected the decision that the case is not viable,” he said. “But I think it is very good that there is discussion about these concepts. It is our duty to broaden our view of history.”

Dibbits said the exhibition did make reference to the term bersiap but put it in the context of violence endured by a large range of people, and that the show explored the entire period from 1945 to 27 December 1949 when the Dutch withdrew.

He said: “The term ‘bersiap’ is used in the Netherlands by different communities that had to flee Indonesia and were repatriated during the revolution. It marks a very specific moment in time in the four and a half years of the revolution, the moment of the fall of 1945, when Indonesia has just declared itself independent and groups of insurgents executed extreme violence against several groups: Indo-Europeans, Moluccans on the Dutch side, and Chinese and others they thought were on the Dutch side. It takes place in the chaos just after the declaration of independence.

“We explain the source of the word, which started to be used in the Netherlands in the 1980s, and give it a historical context, but also speak about the violence against other groups during the revolution. We speak about violence in a much broader sense.”

Dibbits said he felt it was a “pity” that complaints had been made to the prosectors before the exhibition had opened. A second complaint, which is also not being pursued, was filed with prosecutors after Dibbits clarified before the opening that the bersiap concept would be referenced.

Dibbits said: “One claimed that not using the term was against history and the second complaint said the using of the term was against history.”

Indonesia became a member of the United Nations in 1950 and today the country counts about 270 million inhabitants across more than 17,000 islands.

The exhibition explores the personal stories of independence fighters, artists, diplomats, politicians, journalists and those seeking to maintain Dutch hold over the territory by displaying more than 200 objects, including privately owned keepsakes and paintings.

Dibbits said among the most powerful artefacts was a bundle of baby clothes made out of book covers, belonging to a young woman called Julia Nelisse. She had given birth to a daughter, Merani, in a leper colony in Pelantungan, modern-day Java, on 6 September 1947.

Corpses of fighters and civilians were regularly washing up on the river shore, which Nelisse laid out on cloth shrouds. Due to the lack of remaining cloth, she had to take the covers from books in the abandoned colony library to make into clothes. On show is a vest, a pillow and a nappy. “It is very emotional to see and brings it very close,” Dibbits said.


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Heidelberg shooting: One dead in gun attack on German students



A lone gunman has killed one person and seriously injured three others inside a lecture hall at Heidelberg University in the south-west of Germany, before shooting himself dead.

He was an 18-year-old German student.

German police said the shooter, who was armed with two guns, had used a “long gun”, and fired shots around the amphitheatre “wildly”.

The bloodshed triggered a large operation at the university’s campus in the Neuenheimer Feld area.

Police asked people to avoid the area so rescue workers and emergency services could move around freely.

German media reported that the gunman appeared to have no religious or political motive.

Police have searched his flat in the city of Mannheim, and found a WhatsApp message he had sent shortly beforehand, in which he spoke of punishing people.

Heidelberg is a university town with about 160,000 inhabitants.

The country has some of the strictest gun laws in Europe, and school shootings are rare. Anyone under 25 is required to pass a psychological evaluation before getting a gun licence.

Police initially said four victims had been wounded, with a later update confirming one had died in hospital.


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