Race-by-race preview and tips for Rosehill on Saturday
Race 1 – 11:30AM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
5. Lucicello looked much more comfortable ridden quieter last start producing a brilliant turn of foot. Punters Intelligence highlights that her last 600m of 34.22s was the second quickest across the entire day (Covert Ops fastest) and her last 200m section (11.60s) was bettered only by The Party Girl. The grey filly went straight past Roman Wolf, third behind Rule The World on Saturday, which ties the form into 1. Lanigeras first up effort behind Catwalk. Off that, confident she has the Godolphin gelding covered. Lucicello led first up and although she looked to have her chance, turns out Leviathan is a smart two-year-old himself giving Funstar a run for her money. She has still got a few tricks but also possesses a big finish. We know what she is capable of, unlike a couple of the more fancied runners, having to take them on trust.
Dangers: 9. Spend has looked the goods in his two trials, the latest of those towelling up Reloaded. Where the water gets a muddy is those trials were back in March. A reported minor setback saw Team Hawkes back off. The $1.55m Snitzel colt was down to trial at Rosehill last week but the set was abandoned due to the rain. Where does that leave him fitness-wise? The money has come early though. 3. True Detective has the scope to improve sharply this preparation but hell need to albeit off his winning debut at Rosehill. He has also been priced on potential. Lovely trials this time in and drawn to get the gun run, however. Lanigera won stylishly over 900m at Newcastle to break his maiden but its hard to get much of a read off that.
How to play it: Lucicello WIN.
Race 2 – 12:05PM BOOK SPRING HOSPITALITY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
2. Phaistos can turn the tables on 1. Call Me Royal from their last start clash. Phaistos was left a touch flatfooted when Call Me Royal went for home but really picked up late. His last 200m was the most eye-catching part of his race, hitting the line in 12.03s the fastest of his rivals by a clear 1.5 lengths. The step out to 1500m looks a perfect progression now. The three-year-old was an explosive winner at Kembla prior to that on soft ground, which hell be much more comfortable on as opposed to the heavy deck he worked through last start. Being by Helment and a half to Paximadia, hes capable to going to another level again as he creeps out in trip. 7. Plenty being in the race will ensure Call Me Royal isnt allowed to dictate again. Finds Hugh Bowman and drawn to get a lovely midfield trail.
Dangers: Call Me Royal was given a beautiful ride by Sam Weatherly last start, giving his rivals the slip at the 800m after controlling the early stages. A sit and sprint wouldnt have suited her so Weatherly made his rivals quicken suddenly in the wet ground as opposed to being allowed to work through their gears. That was the winning move. Doesnt get the same set up here so could be found vulnerable late. 3. Cinquedea has won his past two by a combined margin of 8.2 lengths. The latest of those was a demolition job over Nacho Libre and Chosen Prince at Newcastle over the mile. The start prior to that Chosen Prince was nosed out by Black And Tan at Scone. Certainly deserves his shot in this company now and gets Blake Shinn aboard. Should camp behind the leaders.
How to play it: Phaistos WIN.
Race 3 – 12:40PM LINDSAY MURPHY TAB HIGHWAY (1400 METRES)
12. Nashian was forced to go back to last from a wide draw in a Highway last start but love the way she rattled home late. Her last 600m of 35.09s was easily the quickest in the race with the majority of that dominance coming in her final 200m (12.07). That unplaced run saw her rating stay on 59 and after Robbie Dolans claim once more, carries just 51.5kg. From the middle draw, expect the three-year-old filly to be much closer in the run. In her three wins to date she has settled second, third and fourth. The one recent blemish in her form was at Taree when fifth but did an amazing job to stay on her feet when looking to squeeze through the narrowest gaps. Shes flying and looks the horse to beat for trainer Marc Quinn.
Dangers: Nashian will need to turn around a 1.6L margin on stablemate 1. Gumshoe but he rises 3.5kg having won first up and wont be afforded the same cushy run from a wide draw. Perhaps Jenny Duggan pushes the button and takes control from the front. Two great chances at longer odds are 10. Esters Rose and 11. Heavens High. There was nothing between them in the Grafton Guineas Prelude when beaten by subsequent Grafton Guineas winner Charmed Princess. The fourth horse there has since trotted in herself. 2. Zardoro shouldnt be eligible for this race as he was a good thing beaten last start which would have been his fourth win. This looks a shade deeper than that Highway, however. 3. Dulette is thriving under Wayne Wilkes since transferring from Victoria and cant be dismissed, chasing a hattrick.
How to play it: Nashian WIN.
Race 4 – 1:15PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
10. Waking Moment, 2. Primitivo, Waking Moment, Primitivo. Really mulled over this race. Waking Moment gets the nod because she maps to be closer in the run, carries 8.5kg less and is the better price of the two. Yes, she has won just one from 20 starts but happy to treat Waking Moment with a clean slate and judge her simply off he form since joining Chris Waller. She has been terrific in both runs and there is a real sense of timing about this five-year-old third up. She chased home Toryjoy last start working past handy filly Itz Lily. She takes on the boys here but outside of Primitivo it looks a race lacking genuine winning chances. Expect Robbie Dolan to be more aggressive early than last start to hold a spot. If she can camp behind the speed, Primitivo faces the task of running her down giving away a stack of weight. Cant see Waking Moment missing each way.
Dangers: 2. Primitivo was outstanding last start out to 2000m. His last 600m was a slick 34.62s with a last 200m of 11.67s and he loves the wet. Wu Gok ran second there and has franked the form since. Will he be able to quicken the same way with an extra 3kg? Jay Ford will need to produce a peach from barrier 10. There might be a spot for him if he track across with 1. Hogmanay. Otherwise, they ride him cold. Would be surprised if the winner didnt come from those two but respect 3. HighPower. He has been well beaten by Primitivo in his last two outings but does get a 4.5kg swing from last start, but has near three lengths to make up. He is ready to win, though.
How to play it: Waking Moment EACH WAY.
Race 5 – 1:50PM ATC FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Theres speed drawn wide in this race but doubt theyll be able to cross 3. Spiritual Pursuit. The Jason Coyle-trained filly looked vulnerable last start dropping from 1100m first up, when collared by Wagner, back to 1000m. However, the three-year-old didnt get attacked in front as much as first thought and she kicked clear at the finish, comfortably holding off subsequent winner Invictus Salute and 4. Deity. She is very fast, skips through the wet and will now be at her top third up. It was third up last preparation where she split Baller and Prophets Thumb over 1100m at Rosehill on a soft track. That was with 52kg on her back, but she looks well in here with 57kg after the claim of Sam Clenton. Were used to seeing Kathy OHara ride her but Coyle opted to use the apprentice and get in 2kg lighter. Quite simply, she is better than benchmark 78 level.
Dangers: Deity is on the seven day back up here and dont be too critical on what she produced last week when favourite. Punters Intelligence reveals she had to spend too many carrots getting into the race from back in the field, running the fastest splits between the 600-200m but peaked on her run slightly late. Out to 1100m helps now. 1. Miss Exfactor has been found out at the end of 1200m races her past two starts. Back 100m is a big tick. The Notation form line is strong. How aggressive will Chris Williams be early? Gimcrack winner 6. Satin Slipper must still be showing the Snowden camp she wants to race but want to see her first up while also curious to see what former West Aussie speedster 5. Agent Pippa can produce for Kris Lees off a long break.
How to play it: Spiritual Pursuit WIN.
Race 6 – 2:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
Here we go again I hear but not ready to give up on 11. Our Winnie just yet. This mares last two runs have been very good but given the hidden nature of them, were still getting a big price about her chances. First up her last 200m split was only bettered by the winner Asterius before second up her last 200m ranked on top when ninth behind Commander. Her last 600m of 35.03s was also the fastest in the race and by more than a length. The problem so far is that she has been giving away impossible starts. Drawn 2 and with senior jockey Glyn Schofield going on, hoping she can settle midfield. Its only a field of 12 here too (having faced 15 or more rivals in her three runs prior). This is a very winnable race if everything goes to plan.
Dangers: The early TAB market is a curious one as its priced the race as if 10. No Escapes win never happened. 12. Nicochet and 8. Love Shack Baby are still considerably shorter despite being well beaten on that occasion. No Escape has put two cracking efforts together in town now but has had the run of the race on both occasions. James Innes Jnr knows the horse well but will need to be on his game to slot in this week. He collared 6. Fuel there but Fuel meets him 2.5kg better and No Escape doesnt map to be breathing down his neck this time. Fuel will be in this for a very long way. 3. Nahuel only rises from 1400m to 1500m second up and wants further, while the same can be said for 9. Cyber Intervention. Third up over further will be their go.
How to play it: Our Winnie WIN and Fuel WIN.
Race 7 – 3:10PM WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)
5. Gaulois struck a heavy track for the first time in over two years in the Civic Stakes and relished it. Rachel King commented how the four-year-old Godolphin gelding effortlessly skipped through the ground. Punters Intelligence backs that up with Gaulois clocking the fastest last 600m in the race (35.18s) and recording the fastest 400-200 and last 200m, just in front of renowned closers New Universe and 14. Niccis Gold. The son of Street Cry is such a versatile horse that hell be able to position himself a lot closer to the speed this time from the inside draw. That makes him even more dangerous having been forced to settle 10th last start from the wide draw. In fact its the first time this campaign he has drawn a soft gate, which brought about his undoing in Queensland early in his preparation. Surprised Gaulois isnt shorter.
Dangers: Niccis Gold was unlucky not to finish closer in the Civic Stakes. She loveRead More – Source