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Coronavirus incidence rate in Spain falls 64% in a month, with almost all regions now under 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants

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The number of new coronavirus cases in Spain continues to fall. The start of this ongoing descent was first recorded a month ago, on November 9. According to the Spanish Health Ministry’s latest report, released on Wednesday evening, the 14-day cumulative number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants is now below 300 in nearly every Spanish region and territory. Only the Basque Country (309) and Asturias (304) are above this level. The average incidence rate across Spain now stands at 193.26, down from a peak of 529.43 a month ago – a fall of 63.5%.

The Health Ministry report published on Wednesday also includes figures from Tuesday, when no data was released as it was a public holiday in many regions. According to the report, 9,836 new coronavirus cases were recorded in the two days, bringing the total number of infections since the beginning of the pandemic to 1,712,101. These figures, however, should be viewed with caution, given that there is often underreporting over weekends and public holidays. In some regions, Monday, December 6 was also a public holiday, resulting in a four-day long weekend.

Once you apply rigorous restriction measures, the impact is huge and the risk of contagion is going to be reduced

JOSÉ MARTÍNEZ OLMOS, FORMER SECRETARY GENERAL FOR HEALTH

The number of Covid-19 fatalities should also be treated with the same caution. The Health Ministry added 373 victims to the official death toll, which now stands at 47,019. This equates to an average of 167 deaths over the two-day period, a number not seen since October 28.

Pressure on Spain’s hospitals is also easing, according to Wednesday’s report. Covid-19 patients now occupy 9.91% of all hospital beds, down from 27.28% a month ago. The occupancy rate in intensive care units (ICUs) has also fallen. When the Health Ministry issued its previous report on December 4, Covid-19 patients occupied 24.64% of ICU beds. On Wednesday that figure had fallen to 22.93%.

“The pandemic is evolving fairly well, but we are still far from where we have to get to,” said Health Minister Salvador Illa on Wednesday, in reference to the government’s goal to reduce the 14-day cumulative number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 25.

But while the incidence rate has fallen sharply in the worst-affected regions, with Murcia, Navarre and Aragón recording drops of more than 70% in a month, the fall has not been as significant in the regions with the best epidemiological data. In Galicia, Madrid, Asturias and the Balearic Islands, the incidence rate has dropped by less than 50% in a month. And in the Canary Islands it has even risen 12%, although the region still has the lowest figure in the country.

Patricia Guillem, an epidemiologist from the European University in Valencia, said this situation is normal. “The fall is greater in regions that have greater incidence, because the higher it is, the more significant the change. What’s more [this fall] is essential because the figures they had were very worrying,” she explained.

Incidence rate falling, but at a slower rate

Another issue is that the incidence rate is falling at a slower rate. In the last few days, it has only dropped by 58 points, compared to the 112-point drop between November 20 and 27. This has raised concern that it will be increasingly difficult for Spain to reach its goal of lowering the 14-day cumulative number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 25. Former Interior Minister Miguel Sebastián said that the incidence rate will not fall to an acceptable level until January 13. And that is not taking into account the risk of new outbreaks following the Christmas holiday period.

Ramón Gálvez, the former public health chief of Castilla-La Mancha, argued tougher coronavirus restrictions were needed to bring down the incidence rate. “The problem is the force with which you act,” he explained. “If they are weak containment measures, you are not going to eradicate the virus in the region. The example of a strategy to eradicate the virus with drastic measures is China, which currently has 4,746 deaths, when Spain already has more than 46,000.”

He added: “In Spain and Europe, they have preferred containment to lower the figures, compared to contention to eradicate the virus, and they have accepted 250 to 350 people dying every day in the second wave as though it were normal.”

José Martínez Olmos, who was the secretary general for health between 2005 and 2011, agreed on the need for stricter restrictions. He explained that “a large part of the high incidence rate is linked with mobility. Once you apply rigorous restriction measures, the impact is huge and the risk of contagion is going to be reduced.”

Pedro Gullón, from the Spanish Epidemiology Society (SEE), also supported this view. “I am worried that the measures will be relaxed more, that people will relax – people will do what they are allowed to do. Perhaps some places are reopening with transmission levels that are still too high, even though the trend is good.”

False sense of security

Another concern is that the increased use of antigen tests, which provide faster results than the traditional PCR diagnostics, may be creating a false sense of security. Victoria Zunzunegui, a former professor of epidemiology at Montreal University, explained: “Antigen tests are excellent, with sensitivity and specificity similar to PCR in terms of confirming a diagnosis, but they have a very low sensitivity in the general population and this sensitivity falls to below 50% when used in a mass testing scenario.”

According to the latest data, Madrid has carried out 92,000 antigen tests compared to 58,000 PCRs, while in Castilla y León, these figures are 39,000 and 25,000, respectively. Olmos warned: “The greater use of fast testing for diagnoses implies that there is greater risk of underestimating the incidence rate due to false negatives.”

Read from source: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-12-10/coronavirus-incidence-rate-in-spain-falls-64-in-a-month-with-almost-all-regions-now-under-300-cases-per-100000-inhabitants.html

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NSW COVID-19 hospitalisations pass 1,000 as cases continue to balloon across Australia

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sbs– New South Wales has recorded another 18,278 COVID-19 cases and two deaths as the state’s outbreak continues to surge.

Sunday’s case numbers are slightly lower than Saturday’s 22,577.

The state recorded two deaths from the virus, while 1,066 people are hospitalised, up from 901 on Saturday. There are 83 in intensive care.

At the peak of the Delta outbreak, on 21 September, there were 1,266 people hospitalised with infections, and 244 in intensive care.

Testing numbers to 8pm on the first day of 2022 were down to 90,019, a drop from 119,278 on New Year’s Eve.

The high case numbers come as Premier Dominic Perrottet continues to focus on hospitalisation and intensive care numbers rather than the daily case total.

Despite comprising about six per cent of the population, unvaccinated people make up the majority of those in intensive care, Health Minister Brad Hazzard says.

To ensure hospital systems can cope, asymptomatic health workers who are in isolation due to being a close contact of a positive case will be permitted to leave isolation in “exceptional circumstances”, NSW Health announced on Friday night.

Victoria posts 7,172 cases, extreme heat closes testing sites

The first day of 2022 hasn’t been kind to 7,172 Victorians, the state’s latest residents to contract COVID-19.

A further three virus-related deaths have also been recorded for 1 January.

However the number of Victorian coronavirus patients in hospital care remains relatively stable at 472, up 19 on Saturday’s figure and 48 beyond the seven-day average.

Of them, 52 are classified as active ICU cases and 22 are in need of ventilation.

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton’s daily update said on Sunday community sampling had revealed 76 per cent of all samples collected over the Christmas period were the Omicron variant. Further testing to confirm this is being undertaken over the next week.

In total, Victoria is managing 31,461 active COVID-19 cases.

Health authorities says virus testers managed to process 48,252 results in the 24 hours to Saturday evening.

The state is 93 per cent fully vaccinated for everyone aged 12 and over.

Some 7,442 infections were reported on Saturday, another pandemic record. There were 51 actively infectious patients in intensive care and 21 ventilated.

Extreme heat caused the closure of eight of the state’s testing sites on Saturday.

Queensland records 3,587 new cases

Queensland has added 3,587 infections to its COVID-19 caseload as a new indoor mask mandate comes into effect across the state.

Some 16,688 Queenslanders now have the virus. However, hospital numbers remain low with 112 patients in care, five of them in ICUs and none requiring ventilation.

Health authorities say testers processed almost 34,000 results in the 24 hours to 7pm on Saturday.

Queensland is 86.60 per cent fully vaccinated for everyone 16 and over.

Chief Health Officer John Gerrard says despite a jump of more than 1,300 cases in a day, he’s not surprised. In part, the increase is related to a change in reporting protocols which saw case figures taken from a 12-hour window on Friday.

“This number is probably a bit smaller than we had expected,” he said in Brisbane on Sunday of the latest figures.

“It probably (also) relates to testing over the holiday period and so it will not be a surprise at all that in the next couple of days we see a significant increase in cases as more samples are tested and more people come forward.”

Dr Gerrard said what experts were now seeing with the virus was that it was “a vastly different disease” to that which was spreading in the community last year and prior to vaccination.

“With a degree of contagiousness of this virus, we are going to be seeing very large numbers of cases, even though the severity is clearly going to be less,” he said.

“We are going to see very large numbers of cases and a small proportion of a very large number (who fall ill) is still a large number.”

Masks were declared compulsory in “virtually all indoor spaces” in Queensland from 1am on Sunday.

Previously masks were only required indoors at supermarkets, shops, on public transport and ride share as well as airports and planes, cinemas and theatres in Queensland.

They now need to be worn at workplaces unless unsafe to do so, pubs, clubs and cafes unless when seated, indoor stadiums and sport arenas, libraries, hair dressers and nail salons, and medical centre waiting areas.

Queenslanders were also urged to return to work-from-home arrangements where possible.

SA hospitalisations ‘very much within capacity’

South Australia, meanwhile, recorded 2,298 COVID-19 cases on New Years Day from 21,140 tests.

The newest caseload is up from 2,108, while hospitalisations have also risen by 11.

There are currently 82 people in hospital, Premier Steven Marshall said on Sunday, a number which he said was “still very much within our current capacity”.

Seven people are in ICU.

“We see a lot of admissions but also a lot of people are leaving hospital on a daily basis after their conditions have stabilised,” Mr Marshall told reporters on Sunday.

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US follows UK’s lead and shortens isolation for healthcare workers who test positive for Covid-19

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independent– Healthcare workers who test positive for Covid-19 and are asymptomatic only need to isolate for seven days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said.

The CDC reduced the recommended isolation time from 10 days in part due to concerns that the highly transmissible Omicron variant could cause even greater staffing shortages at hospitals.

In new guidance released on Thursday, the CDC said infected healthcare workers could return to work after a week as long as they were asymptomatic and produced a negative test.

The US recorded 261,339 new cases on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Earlier this week, the UK Health Security Agency announced that essential workers would be allowed to return after a seven-day isolation period amid a worsening staffing crisis in hospitals.

In a statement, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said it was updating guidelines in response to an “anticipated surge” in patients due to the Omicron variant.

“Our priority, remains prevention—and I strongly encourage all healthcare personnel to get vaccinated and boosted.”

Dr Walensky added that health care workers who were fully vaccinated, including with a booster shot, did not need to isolate after a high-risk exposure.

On Friday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that essential workers who tested positive could return to their jobs after five days if they were fully vaccinated and asymptomatic, and had not had a fever within the past 72 hours.

“This is not Delta, or the first variant,” Ms Hochul said during a live address.

“This is Omicron, and thus far it has demonstrated it’s not as severe in its impact, and therefore we want to make sure that our critical workforce, who we’ve relied on from the beginning, can get back to work.”

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Health

Covid booster jab triggers immune response in days, not weeks, say scientists

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independent– Those who receive a Covid booster jab can expect to mount an immune response in a matter of days – not weeks, scientists say.

The boosters have been shown to restore the body’s immunological defences against Omicron, which appears capable of infecting those who are double-jabbed.

While it takes up to two weeks to prime the immune system against Covid after a first dose, the effects of a booster jab start to be felt within two to three days, experts believe.

“The immunity generated after a booster jab will rise much quicker than the first immune response,” said Gary McLean, a professor in molecular immunology at London Metropolitan University.

That’s because crucial memory cells activated after the first dose will still be present in the body, Prof McLean explained, and therefore “do not require the two-week activation and instruction phase they initially go through”.

These memory cells – T and B – are responsible for hunting down infected cells and producing antibodies that stop the virus from gaining entry in the first place.

Their continuing presence means the immune system is on high alert and ready to spring back into action at the earliest sight of the virus, or anything that mimics it.

“That can then translate into boosted antibody levels and other increases in active T cells within days of the booster,” said Prof McLean. “It is likely that maximal immune activity is reached seven days after the booster.”

Professor Charles Bangham, an immunologist and co-director of the institute of infection at Imperial College London, said that in a secondary or subsequent immune response, T cells and antibodies should start to be detectable within “two to three days” of a booster.

The boosters appear to be 70 per cent effective against omicron infection – and are thought to offer even higher protection from hospitalisation and death – but scientists are concerned that the UK rollout won’t be able to keep up with the spread of the variant.

Doubling at a rate of every two days, Omicron has fuelled a sudden lift in national cases. On Thursday, 88,376 new Covid cases were reported, setting a new pandemic record for the second day running.

However, infections are thought to be running at far higher levels. The UK Health Security Agency said it expects there to be more than one million infections a day by the end of the month.

The government, meanwhile, has set the ambitious target of rolling out one million boosters a day to counter Omicron, and intends to have offered all eligible adults one by the close of the year. Some 745,183 third doses were given on Thursday, bringing the national total to 25.4 million.

Recent research from Israel suggests that rates of infection, severe disease and death from Delta were reduced after three to seven days post-boost – but reduced more after 12 days post-boost – when using the Pfizer vaccine for all three jabs.

The UK’s Cov-Boost study, which investigated the benefits of a booster jab among people who had received doses of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine, also pointed to an increased immune response by day seven.

“This ‘secondary immune response’ is more rapid than observed following the ‘priming’ course of vaccination, when the body takes 14 days or longer to ‘prime’ the antibody-producing B cells to produce antibody against the virus,” said Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London.

“However when virus antigens [an immune-triggering structure] are ‘re-encountered’ – either by a boosting shot of vaccine or by exposure to infection – these cells react very rapidly to produce antibody more quickly.”

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