CNN– China is preparing to test tens of thousands of blood bank samples from the city of Wuhan as part of a probe into the origins of Covid-19, according to a Chinese official. The move comes amid increasing calls for transparency over the emergence of the virus.
Could Australia see a migration boom after the COVID-19 pandemic?
sbs -After more than three months of lockdown, Greater Sydney reopened its economy on Monday much to the relief of business owners, but there was one virus-induced complication threatening to take the shine off the recovery.
Since Australia shut its international borders in March last year, business and industry have been grappling with a chronic shortage of workers.
That’s prompted calls from some leaders to swiftly reopen international borders and lift migration levels in a way not seen since World War II.
In the 12 months following the closure of Australia’s international borders, Australia’s population rose by just 35,700 people according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The growth rate was just 0.1 per cent, a significant fall on the previous years.
The “annual natural increase”, comprising births and deaths among Australian residents, remained steady at 131,000 people.
But that was offset by a significant fall in net overseas migration, down to a negative figure of 95,300.
That’s a decrease of 334,600 people since the previous year.
“Not since wartime in Australia’s history, have we seen anything that even comes close to the demographic change that we’ve experienced during COVID-19,” ANU demographer Dr Liz Allen told SBS News.
Australian businesses were already struggling with workforce shortages before the pandemic hit and now the ongoing border closures have aggravated the issue.
“Right across the board from unskilled [migrants] through to very highly skilled medical professionals, we realise how dependent we are as a state and as a nation on immigration,” Professor Jock Collins from the UTS Business School told SBS News.
There is pent-up demand from migrants looking to settle or return to Australia, but Dr Allen said it was unlikely the intake would bounce back to pre-COVID levels – where the population grew by over one per cent each year – in the near future.
“That spells a serious disaster for Australia and in the economy,” she warned.
“The basic needs of this country won’t be met because the local workforce is insufficient to meet the needs of our industry.”
It’s a quandary front of mind for New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet, who earlier this week spoke of his eagerness to reopen international borders.
“We need to get the borders opened up. Then we need to market to those overseas countries to get some of those skilled migrants in because if we lose this opportunity, those skilled migrants will go to other countries,” he said on Monday.
It’s a change of view from before the pandemic where his predecessor Gladys Berijiklian went to the last state election in 2019 pushing to cut immigration to the state by 50 per cent, citing growing issues with infrastructure and traffic congestion.
An “ambitious” boom?
The Australian Financial Review reported that Mr Perrottet is being asked by senior bureaucrats to set his migration sights even higher, with the figure of two million migrants over five years.
They’ve urged him to lobby for an “ambitious” immigration program, in the vein of the mass influx following World War II when Australians were given a message to “populate or perish”.
In 1945, the government was concerned the country needed a larger population to sustain its defences and economic recovery, leading to the foundation of the Federal Department of Immigration and a target to increase the population by one per cent each year.
Some 1.2 million migrants entered the country over the following 15 years, primarily from war-torn Europe, delivering an economic boost.
“These new immigrants contributed to half the job growth in the economy, half the population growth,” Professor Collins explained.
“Immigrants would arrive … straight off the boat, literally into the factory, the next day.”
He said the country was facing a similar labour shortage today – which would require a strong uptick in migration to resolve.
But a World War II-style increase would pose challenges for infrastructure and housing, with public transport, roads and the healthcare system needing to be scaled up.
“Too often in the past, governments have sort of taken the benefits of immigration while delaying the necessary public infrastructure investment to create problems down the track,” Professor Collins said.
He also cautioned against the increasing reliance on temporary visa holders to fill labour shortages, at risk of increased exploitation and wage theft.
The post-war migration boom also signalled a significant shift in Australia’s cultural make-up.
The decision to take in refugees from across Europe marked the end of the preferential settlement of British nationals and the beginning of Australia’s transformation from an Anglo-centric colony to a multicultural society.
It triggered a change in perspective about migration that culminated in the removal of the White Australia Policy by the Whitlam government.
“It was the post-war immigration boom, that charted a new course for Australia. We headed away from that white monoculture … we realised that we needed to move beyond the Antipodes of our migration history and instead look to the future,” Dr Allen said.
While the post-war boom drew heavily on European immigrants, Dr Allen expects China and India to continue to contribute a sizeable share of Australia’s arrivals going forward beyond COVID.
“We will require skills in people from a range of backgrounds, labourers, professionals, and so on. [And] I suspect that we will continue to see migration from more diverse places than where we’ve historically welcomed people from,” she said.
“This moment in time, this post-COVID rebuild will be a watershed in our history.”
Spain details new system of coronavirus restrictions to be applied until 70% of population is vaccinated
The Spanish Health Ministry and regional authorities on Wednesday approved a traffic light system to determine coronavirus restrictions based on an area’s epidemiological situation. This set of common criteria is to be applied until 70% of the population and all over-50s are vaccinated against Covid-19.
The traffic light system categorizes risk as extreme, high, medium, low and new normality based on data points such as the seven-day and 14-day incidence rate, and the percentage of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The system, which applies to areas with more than 10,000 inhabitants, then recommends different restrictions based on the level of risk. Up until now, this has been used just as a guide. But on Wednesday, the Inter-Territorial Council of the National Health System (CISNS), which brings together health chiefs from the central and regional governments, voted to make it legally binding.
This means that the regions – which are in charge of controlling the pandemic as well as the Covid-19 vaccination drive – must follow the rules set out by the system. For example, even in a low-risk scenario, nighttime venues must close at 3am and only a maximum of 10 people are allowed to a table in sidewalk cafés. Catalonia, Madrid, Andalusia, Galicia, Murcia and the Basque Country have opposed the mandatory condition of the measures, which will come into force soon, once they are published in the Official State Gazette (BOE). These regions are home to 29.5 million people – more than half Spain’s population of 47.5 million. Castilla y León and the North African exclave city of Melilla also abstained from the vote.
According to the latest figures from the Health Ministry, 18,426,204 people in Spain have received their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine – 38.8% of the population. Meanwhile, 9,679,187 people have got the full protection offered by the immunization – 20.4%. The government has set the target of vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of the summer, a target that is on track assuming there are no setbacks such as interruptions to supply. The Health Ministry on Wednesday reported 4,984 new coronavirus infections and added 66 fatalities to the overall death toll. The 14-day cumulative number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 inhabitants, meanwhile, fell a further two points to 118.
The new rules agreed on Wednesday, and which will be approved via a Declaration of Coordinated Action (DAC), may lead to legal conflicts between the Health Ministry and some regional governments. Madrid has already announced that it will follow its own measures – not those outlined by the traffic light system. In a message posted on Twitter, Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso said: “Hospitality establishments are safe spaces and our allies to overcoming this crisis. They cannot pay for the inefficiency of the Sánchez government,” in reference to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez who leads a coalition government made up of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos.
Madrid has been at loggerheads with the central government over the reach of coronavirus restrictions since the health crisis began. When the CISNS agreed last October that areas at certain risk levels should be placed under perimetral lockdown – a decision that affected 10 municipalities in Madrid – the Ayuso government applied the restrictions, but challenged them in court. When a judge ruled in the region’s favor, the central government was forced to declare a state of alarm in the region to ensure the coronavirus restrictions were followed. Madrid also opposed the coronavirus restrictions approved by CISNS for the Christmas vacations and Easter break, such as limits on travel and social gatherings, but did eventually adhere to them.
At the end of the CISNS meeting on Wednesday, Health Minister Carolina Darias reiterated that it was mandatory for the regions to follow the measures approved by the council. “It is very important to be at a low [risk] level, not only so that we are safer and the virus is spread less, but also so that we can start entering the new normality,” she said. “We have to learn from the lessons learned. We know what happened last summer [when increased social activity led to a second wave of the virus]. What’s important is finishing off what we are achieving and reaching incidence rates below 50 [cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the threshold for low risk].”
The measures approved will affect Spain’s 17 regions differently, depending on what restrictions are already in place in each territory and their contagion rates. While some regions will be able to ease restrictions, others will have to toughen them. In Madrid, for example, the 14-day cumulative number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 inhabitants is 165, a data point, among others, that places it in the high-risk category. Despite this, the restrictions in the region correspond to those in the “new normality” category, i.e. regions where the incidence rate is 25 cases.
Andalusia allowed nighttime venues to reopen until 2am after the state of alarm came to an end on May 9. But these venues will have to close once the new rules are published in the BOE, given that the 14-day cumulative number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region now stands at 177 and is continuing to rise. On the other hand, Valencia, which is in a low-risk scenario, could already allow nighttime venues to open until 3am. Hospitality establishments, however, will still need to shut by 10pm until next week.
One of the mandatory rules that must be applied regardless of the risk level is the ban on smoking when a two-meter distance from other people cannot be respected. This ban also applies to water pipes, hookahs and other ways of inhaling tobacco.
Here is an overview of the main coronavirus restrictions set down by the traffic-light system.
Low risk and new normality. Indoors, the maximum capacity is 50%. Outdoor areas will be allowed to operate at full capacity, provided that the seats between different tables are 1.5 meters apart. The consumption of food and drinks, both inside and outside, will have to take place while seated at tables, with the same safe distance. The tables will have a limit of six people inside and 10 outside. Closing time will be 3am at the latest, and registers will be introduced to ensure that patrons can be traced should a coronavirus case be detected.
Medium risk. If the progress of the health crisis is favorable, closing time will be at 2am and the same measures for the lower risk scenario will be adopted, apart from a limit of a third of capacity inside.
Bars and restaurants
New normality. The permitted capacity will be 50% inside with the option of an extra 10% if risk-control measures are introduced that guarantee high levels of ventilation and air-quality control. Tables in outdoor areas can be fully occupied provided that the distance between chairs at different tables is at least 1.5 meters. Service and consumption at the bar are allowed, provided the aforementioned distance is respected. Six people can share a table inside, and 10 outside. Closing time will be 1am and service will cease one hour previously.
Low risk. The same measures as in the new normality, but with a distance of two meters between tables.
Medium risk. Inside, the same measures as low risk, but with a limit of a third of capacity. Outside, a maximum of 75% and six people per table.
High risk. Indoor areas will be closed and the same measures will be applied outside as for medium risk.
Very high risk. Outdoor capacity limited to 50% and limits on opening times, with groups of patrons separated and a maximum of four people per table. If the trend is rising and exceeds 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over 14 days, establishments must close, only offering takeaway or delivery for consumption at home.
New normality. A maximum of 10,000 people. Independent sectors of no more than 1,000 people must be established, with safety measures being observed at all times. Transit areas between these sectors will be at least two meters wide. Smoking will not be permitted, nor the use of electronic cigarettes, in areas dedicated to the public. Maximum capacity of 50%, guaranteeing a useable area of 1.5 square meters per person, and eating and drinking will not be allowed in the public areas.
Low risk. The same measures as previously described, but with a maximum of 5,000 people and space of 2.25 square meters.
High risk. A maximum of 2,500 people. If possible, independent sectors of no more than 500 people will be established. Capacity will be limited to 30% and the area per person will be three square meters. Consumption of food and drink will be prohibited.
Very high risk. No events with large crowds will be allowed.
Primary and secondary school, vocational training. These centers will remain open during the entire school year, “ensuring there are canteen services as well as out-of-hours study support for minors with special needs or who belong to socially vulnerable people,” according to the document, to which EL PAÍS had access on Tuesday. If there are outbreaks or the transmission of the virus runs out of control, “mixed in-person and remote education will be considered” before the center is closed, or “changes to the timetable that will allow for greater limits on contacts.”
Universities. The agreement only stipulates “distance learning as far as possible” for university teaching under alert level 4, and for the rest of the levels the same recommendations will be in place as for 2020 to 2021 – i.e. the use of masks, a Covid coordinator, contact tracing, quarantines for those with symptoms and ventilation of closed spaces, among other measures.
For all centers. All of the prevention measures set out by the ministry will be applied in all schools and universities. These include limiting contacts, maintaining social distancing, creating bubbles, handwashing and mask use, regular ventilation of indoor areas and students with symptoms staying at home.
Fourth coronavirus wave plateaus in Spain, but hospitals remain under pressure
The report released on Thursday by the ministry shows that the 14-day cumulative number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the country as a whole remains high, at 232.55. But it barely rose three points on the day before, after two days with no change. The experts attribute this to the vaccination campaign and the ongoing social restrictions in most of the country, but they also warn that the situation in Spain is far from good – seven regions and the two North African exclave cities, Ceuta and Melilla, are at “extreme risk” levels, with an incidence above 250, and one in every five intensive care unit (ICU) beds is occupied by Covid-19 patients. Thursday’s report added 132 deaths to the official toll, which now stands at 77,496.
This wave can’t be compared with the previous ones and it appears to be stabilizing now
JESÚS MOLINA CABRILLANA, SPOKESPERSON FOR THE SPANISH SOCIETY OF PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, PUBLIC HEALTH AND HYGIENE
“Caution and prudence,” insists Daniel López-Acuña, a former director of emergencies at the World Health Organization (WHO). After more than a month that has seen the incidence rising – the curve started to go up on March 16 – the 14-day cumulative incidence has plateaued for the last week. On Monday it came in at 230, and by Thursday it had gone up by 2.55 points. “We are in a plateau phase, taking one step forward and one step back,” explains Toni Trilla, head of preventive medicine at the Hospital Clínic in Barcelona. “Perhaps the health system will not suffer so much and I hope that there is a consolidated fall, but we are a bit confused because this wave has not followed the pattern of other waves.”
Some epidemiologists point to the seven-day cumulative incidence, which also confirms the plateau. This data point has been hovering around 108 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last seven days, less than 50% of the 14-day figure. “If the seven-day incidence is below 50% of the 14-day incidence, that means that the curve is falling,” explains Jesús Molina Cabrillana, spokesperson for the Spanish Society of Preventive Medicine, Public Health and Hygiene. “This wave can’t be compared with the previous ones and it appears to be stabilizing now. In any case, if there is an uptick, it won’t be a big one. More than a week has now passed since Easter, which is when there could have been an increase in infections, and it is not expected to rise further.”
The speed of transmission of the virus in Spain – the R number, which measures on average how many people a person with the coronavirus infects – is also falling. On April 14, the last day for which there is data, the number had fallen below one for the first time in a month – that is the limit below which the health authorities say that the virus is under control. On that day, it came in at 0.98 – that’s to say, for every 100 positives, another 98 people will be infected. “It is good for this to continue like this,” explains López-Acuña. “But what should guide us is that, if we continue to have a plateau and incidences that are very high and intensive care units with such high occupation, we should be concerned.”
What is clear from the data is that the epidemiological situation varies greatly from region to region. Valencia, for example, is below 40 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the lowest level in Spain. Galicia, the Balearic Islands and Murcia are also under 100. Madrid and Navarre, however, are as high as 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants while the Basque Country exceeds 500 cases.
“The overcrowding of people can have a big influence,” explains epidemiologist Joan Caylà. The population density is not the same in Galicia as it is in the metropolitan area of Barcelona. In the case of the Valencia region, what they do very well there is contact tracing and that can be a determining factor for isolating cases and imposing quarantines.”
The toughness of the measures in place – each region can decide its own restrictions – and compliance with the rules, the experts say, constitute another of the determining factors that are seeing the epidemiological curves fluctuate. Valencia, for example, has taken very strict measures and is deescalating very slowly – bars have to close at 6pm, a restriction that is due to be lifted on Monday. Madrid, meanwhile, with an incidence that is 10 times higher, has been a lot laxer with restrictions. Restaurants, for example, are staying open until 11pm.
The experts also assume that the vaccination campaign has also played a key role in the progress of this wave, but there are several nuances here. With just 21.4% of the population so far protected with one shot of the Covid-19 vaccines being used in Spain, above all in the older age groups, the epidemiologists agree that the vaccine has not had such an influence on the infection curve, given that most of the new cases are being registered among young people who have not had the chance to get their shots yet. The big effect, they say, is in terms of the fall in deaths and hospitalizations, where age is a key factor. Vaccination “will have had an influence on the curve of infections,” explains Molina Cabrillana, “but where it has really contributed is with serious illness and mortality. There is currently not the kind of overloading [of hospitals] that we saw in November and January.”
Spain’s ICUs were facing this fourth wave from a starting point of high hospital occupation. On March 16, for example, 20% of beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients, and healthcare professions feared a wave of new cases after Easter week. However, admissions have not, for now, shot up. On Thursday, there were 2,283 coronavirus patients in a critical condition – that is 22.6% of the available ICU beds.
López-Acuña insists on the need for prudence in the current situation. “It is likely that the magnitude of the wave is not so pronounced because there is less mobility than at Christmas, fewer crowds and a segment of the population is protected [by vaccines]. But there are a few worrying elements: community transmission is not under control, and there is an ongoing high occupation of ICUs, with the most severe cases linked to the British strain, which leads to longer hospital stays.” This variant, which is more infectious and was first identified in England, has been predominant in Spain since March.
The experts all coincide with López-Acuña and call for the social restrictions in place and protection measures to be respected, and for people not to drop their guard ahead of time. “The impact on the healthcare system will have to fall if the speed of vaccination accelerates, but it will take time before we see this in terms of infections,” explains Trilla. The European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) has issued a recommendation stating that two people should be able to remove their masks in a closed space if both of them are vaccinated, as well as calling for a relaxation of quarantine and testing requirements for travel for those who have had their vaccine shots. Molina Cabrillana sees this as feasible, but Trilla and López-Acuña say that it is “premature” because it could convey a message of “false security,” and prompt an “excessive relaxation.”
As for the social restrictions, Trilla recommends “asymmetrical measures that are adapted to the scale of each region at any given time.” Molina Cabrillana is calling for people to “hold on a little longer, until we are below 50 cases per 100,000 [inhabitants].” López-Acuña, meanwhile, is insisting that “restrictions continue in closed spaces.” If there is one thing that all the experts consulted by EL PAÍS agree on, it is the major pending task: “Strict contact studies,” Caylà states.
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